Mali remains gripped by a multidimensional crisis that has destabilised its political, security and social institutions. Under military rule since 2020, the transitional government has pursued sweeping reforms, including a new Constitution, penal code and code of criminal procedure. While the Constitution enshrines fundamental rights and anti-corruption measures, it has been criticised for centralising power in the presidency and being adopted without broad consensus during authoritarian governance, raising concerns about democratic legitimacy.

The new penal code marks a sharp regression in human rights protections by criminalising same-sex sexual relationships and banning any perceived promotion of homosexuality, increasing stigma and exposing LGBTQ+ people to arbitrary arrest and violence. These developments reflect a broader shrinking of civic space, where dissent is increasingly suppressed and legal reforms risk entrenching control rather than expanding freedoms. However, the Charter for Peace and Reconciliation has been commended as a positive step.

Mali’s withdrawal from ECOWAS and suspension of the Algiers Agreement signal a retreat from regional cooperation and negotiated peace frameworks, while the Alliance of Sahel States remains nascent and untested. The extension of the transition period without broad consensus further undermines trust and delays the restoration of constitutional order. For civil society, shrinking external support, contested domestic reforms and limited avenues for meaningful engagement create heightened risks and strategic uncertainty. While reforms are framed as steps toward stability, their substance and implementation risk weakening inclusive governance, rights protection and social cohesion.