Event Summary
In the first week of January 2026, geopolitical tensions in Latin America dramatically intensified following a US military intervention in Venezuela, which included bombings and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro on 3 January 2026, with reports of casualties and international reactions to possible violations of international law.
These events have caused great concern in Colombia, both because of the possible direct impact on the border and the deterioration of bilateral relations between the Colombian and US governments. There have been mass demonstrations in Colombia against foreign intervention and in support of regional sovereignty, expressing rejection of “military interference” and demands for respect for the self-determination of Latin American countries. President Gustavo Petro and his cabinet have adopted a diplomatic position of alertness and defensiveness in the face of explicit threats of intervention and regional security reinforcement, in addition to requesting multilateral forums to discuss the conflict.
The tensions include statements about possible military action by the United States against Colombia, mutual accusations between the governments in Washington and Bogotá, and social mobilisations in response to the escalation, with protests called in several cities across the country in rejection of the intervention. A diplomatic rapprochement was recently achieved, and the results of this are awaited.
This influences the enabling environment as it tends to deepen the political polarisation that was already being observed and there are concerns about the humanitarian and social effects on the Colombian-Venezuelan border, including possible displacement, migration flows and vulnerabilities of migrant and local communities in border areas.